Congressional Quarterly (CQ), a publication that writes about matters related to Capitol Hill, recently wrote an article about the elections in the three congressional races in New Mexico. The article, entitled, Three's a Crowd in New Mexico House Races, lists the candidates in each race and offers a general forecast in each district. CQ lists the elections in the New Mexico First and Second Congressional Districts among the "House Races to Watch." The races are more defined now that many would-be candidates have dropped out.
See how things have changed since last November.
The First Congressional District (Heather Wilson's seat) is considered the most competitive of the three elections and is described a "No Clear Favorite" race. Martin Heinrich, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Robert Pidcock and Rebecca Vigil Giron are seeking the Demoratic nomination and Darren White and Joe Carraro are competing for the GOP nod.
The Second Congressional District (Steve Pearce's seat) is described as "Republican favored." This means whoever wins the Republican nomination will be favored to win the seat, based on voter registration, polls and recent trends. Notice that CQ said "favored" as opposed to "safe," which means that the general election could still be competitive. There are five candidates seeking to become the GOP nominee: Aubrey Dunn, C. Earl Greer, Ed Tinsley, Monty Newman and Greg Sowards. Harry Teague and Bill McCamley are competing for the Democratic nomination.
CQ describes the Third Congressional District (Tom Udall's seat) as "Safe Democrat," meaning that a Democratic victory is fairly certain. The field of Democrats is quite crowded: Ben J. Lujan, Don Wiviott, Benny Shando, Harry B. Montoya, Jon Adams and Rudy Martin. The two Republicans seeking the seat are Marco Gonzales and Dan East.
Incidentally, CQ rates the Senate race to replace Sen. Pete Domenici as "Leans Democrat ." This rating is probably based on recent polls. As you probably know, Tom Udall is the sole Democrat seeking the seat, with Rep. Heather Wilson and Rep. Steve Pearce seeking the GOP nod.
Our primaries for the three U.S. House seats and the U.S. Senate are just around the corner on June 3. On June 4, we should know which of those candidates will be representing his or her party in each of the races.
And if you'd like to follow developments in each of those races, I recommend that you read the blog New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Other good blogs are Democracy for New Mexico, New Mexico FBIHOP and Heath Haussamen on New Mexico Politics.